You are browsing the archive for Data, Data, and More Data.

by HS

SoCal Sales and Prices Continue to Climb

March 16, 2010 in Data, Data, and More Data by HS

DataQuick News reports Southern California median price and sales volume up

Southern California home sales in February were above year-ago levels for the 20th month in a row as buyers continued to snap up bargain properties with government-backed mortgages and tax incentives. The median price paid for a home rose on a year-over-year basis for the third consecutive month, a real estate information service reported.A total of 15,359 new and resale homes sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties last month. That was virtually unchanged from 15,361 in January, and up 0.8 percent from 15,231 in February 2009, according to MDA DataQuick of San Diego.

The February sales average is 17,983 going back to 1988, when DataQuick’s statistics begin. The sales distribution remains tilted toward lower-cost distressed homes, although not as steeply as most of last year.

“It’s possible the stars won’t line up this way again for many years. With prices and mortgage interest rates this low, the cost of ownership is about as low as we’ve seen it in decades,” said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president.

The median price paid for a Southland home was $275,000 last month, up 1.3 percent from $271,500 in January, and up 10.0 percent from $250,000 for February 2009.

The median peaked at $505,000 in mid 2007 and appears, so far, to have bottomed out at $247,000 in April last year. The peak-to-trough drop in median was due to a decline in home values as well as a shift in sales toward lower-cost homes.

by HS

California Foreclosure Starts Up in February

March 16, 2010 in Data, Data, and More Data, Everything About Foreclosures by HS

From ForeclosureRadar’s February California Foreclosure Report:

After reaching the lowest level in a year last month, Notice of Defaults, the start of the foreclosure process, increased by 19.7 percent in February. The number of properties scheduled for foreclosure sale remained near record levels, yet foreclosure sales, either Back to Bank or Sold to 3rd Parties, dropped by 11.9 percent total.

“The disconnect between delinquencies, and foreclosure sales continues to widen,” says Sean O’Toole, Founder and CEO of ForeclosureRadar.com. “While efforts to slow foreclosures are clearly working, it remains unclear that anything has yet addressed the core problem of excess household mortgage debt.”

Despite the increase in Notice of Default filings in February, our estimated number of properties in Preforeclosure dropped 8.0 percent due to the relatively high number of Notice of Trustee Sale filings. Properties exiting the foreclosure process nearly matched the number of new Notice of Trustee Sale filings, leaving the number of properties Scheduled for Sale in February flat compared to January. Year-over-year, the increase in properties Scheduled for Sale is a dramatic 126.3 percent, as more and more homeowners have found themselves on the brink of foreclosure. Banks continue to resell their Bank Owned (REO) property in a timely manner, with their inventories also flat from January to February.

Short Sales Make Up 45% of the Pending Sales in Sacramento

March 16, 2010 in As Goes California…, Data, Data, and More Data, First-Time Home Buyers, News To Us, Sacramento Short Sale Listings, Short Sales, Takin’ It In The Short Sales, The Buying and Selling Process by Elizabeth Weintraub

I’m going to show you a chart, but it doesn’t tell the entire story of the real estate market in Sacramento. It’s just an overview. In fact, at first glance, an observer might come to the conclusion that sales are falling in Sacramento, but they aren’t. The surprising tidbit in all of this is that pending short sales in Sacramento, which are not the active short contingent listings, make up almost half of the pending sales at 45%. These pending sales will morph into closed sales.

Well, most of them. I have a pending short sale in Roseville right now that I’ve been working on for more than a year. It’s one of those where I actually had to extend the listing. We received short sale approval from Bank of America on both loans this week (it’s a double Countrywide) and were able to successfully renegotiate the HELOC loan to remove the requirement for a seller contribution. When I informed the patient buyer that she could start her loan, the buyer discovered she no longer qualified to buy the home. I’m afraid that I’ll have to look for another buyer now.

Here is the Trendgraphix chart ending with the month of February, 2010. It represents all homes for sale, pending and closed over 15 months in our four-county area in Sacramento.

Sacramento real estate market february 2010

Look at that pending sale line. Yowza. It has moved up almost 40% over the past 12 months. This means we are likely to see a huge increase in closed sales for March. Inventory (the amount of homes for sale on the market) has inched up a bit, but that’s normal for this time of year. Lots of sellers wait until March / April to put their homes on the market because that’s our prime selling season. Personally, I think waiting until April is not a wise move in today’s market, because first-time home buyers have until April 30th to be in contract or they lose the first-time home buyer tax credit.

The Sacramento market is driven by first-time home buyers. I look at the Sacramento Bee business section every Sunday and the monthly sales in our SAR newsletter. The Bee breaks down all sales by ZIP code and lists each property address, sale date and sales price. There are very few upper-end home sales. Almost everything is under $300,000. Agents who aren’t working in that market are missing the boat.

Need more proof? Here are the Trendgraphix stats for Sacramento County for February, 2010:

  • Homes sold over $400,000 = 5%
  • Homes sold between $200,000 and $400,000 = 37%
  • Homes sold under $200,000 = 58%
  • The average per-square-cost remains the same as the month of January at $120.

If you know of a buyer who wants a 6-bedroom, 4-bath Meritage home with over 4,200 square feet in the Diamond Woods subdivision in Roseville at an unheard-of price at $430,000, please let me know. I received a ton of offers the first go-around with this and the seller just wants a buyer who can actually close escrow. This is not an Equator short sale; we actually have direct communication with both short sale negotiators at Bank of America and can do a fast reapproval. Or I’ll eat my shoes. Not all of them, just one pair.

sacramento short sale agent

Elizabeth Weintraub is an author, home buying columnist for The New York Times-owned About.com, a Land Park resident, and a Land Park real estate agent who specializes in older, classic homes in Land Park, Curtis Park, Midtown and East Sacramento. Weintraub is also a Sacramento Short Sale agent who lists and successfully sells short sales throughout Sacramento. Call Elizabeth Weintraub at 916.233.6759. Put 35 years of real estate experience to work for you. DRE License # 00697006.

The Short Sale Savior, by Elizabeth Weintraub, available through bookstores everywhere and at Amazon.com.

Photo: Unless otherwise noted in this blog, the photo is copyrighted by Big Stock Photo and used with permission.

The views expressed herein are Weintraub’s personal views and do not reflect the views of Lyon Real Estate.

by HS

RealtyTrac: Foreclosures Fall 2%

March 11, 2010 in Data, Data, and More Data, Everything About Foreclosures by HS

RealtyTrac reports U.S. FORECLOSURE ACTIVITY DECREASES 2 PERCENT IN FEBRUARY

IRVINE, Calif. – March 11, 2010 – RealtyTrac® (realtytrac.com), the leading online marketplace for foreclosure properties, today released its February 2010 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report™, which shows foreclosure filings — default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions — were reported on 308,524 U.S. properties during the month, a decrease of 2 percent from the previous month but still 6 percent above the level reported in February 2009. The report also shows one in every 418 U.S. housing units received a foreclosure filing in February.

“The 6 percent year-over-year increase we saw in February was the smallest annual increase we’ve seen since January 2006, when we began calculating year-over-year increases, but it still marked the 50th consecutive month of year-over-year increases in foreclosure activity,” said James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. “This leveling of the foreclosure trend is not necessarily evidence that fewer homeowners are in distress and at risk for foreclosure, but rather that foreclosure prevention programs, legislation and other processing delays are in effect capping monthly foreclosure activity — albeit at a historically high level that will likely continue for an extended period.

“In addition, severe winter weather appears to have temporarily slowed the processing of foreclosure records in some Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic states.”

Foreclosure activity by type

Default notices (Notices of Default and Lis Pendens) were reported on a total of 106,208 U.S. properties during the month, an increase of 3 percent from the previous month but down 3 percent from February 2009. Default notices were down 25 percent from their peak of more than 142,000 in April 2009 but were still more than three times the number they were four years ago in February 2006.

Foreclosure auctions (Notices of Trustee’s Sale and Notices of Sheriff’s Sales) were scheduled for the first time on a total of 123,633 U.S. properties, a decrease of 1 percent from the previous month but still 16 percent higher than the level reported in February 2009. Scheduled auctions were down 14 percent from their peak of more than 144,000 in August 2009 but were also about three times higher than the number reported in February 2006.

Bank repossessions (REOs) were reported on a total of 78,683 U.S. properties during the month, a 10 percent decrease from the previous month but an increase of 6 percent from February 2009. Bank repossessions were down nearly 15 percent from their peak of more than 92,000 in December 2009 but were at nearly twice the level reported in February 2006.

No BS Real Estate Indicators – January 2010

March 10, 2010 in As Goes California…, Data, Data, and More Data, Home Economics, The Buying and Selling Process by Jay Emerson

No BS Real Estate Indicators and Commentary – January 2010

The media said 2009 ended like a lamb.  The data was contradictory to that opinion.  No BS Real EstateDecember was a good month.  The media is also saying 2010 started like a lamb.    On this one, they are relatively correct.  Sales indeed showed a sharp decline in January (Sacramento single family homes; see Indicator #1 below).  As of right now, they are even lower in February.  Since March 2008, the number of closed sales has been consistenly over 1400 per month. 

The supply is limited to contingent short sales and REO fixers.  This is how booms start though.  Everything is quiet in the eye of the storm.  Spring has sprung and buyers are awakening.  If you are thinking of selling, get it on the market soon.  Call me for help.  If you are buying, yes, I can help you too. 

The charts below reflect over 10 years of local data collection, charting and trending.  The commentary is relevant to this information and what the author sees in the trenches.  No single piece of data can tell the whole story nor do these specific indicators predict the future. Remember, the “momentum” of a trend is important in understanding the force and direction of an underlying data element. A commodity trader watches momentum indicators to more accurately (but still with no guarantees) foretell a future data point. These are million-dollar decisions so momentum is important. 

The charting doesn’t end here.  Over 10 years of median sales price data has been collected and charted for over 40 local zip codes (see my Communities web page coming soon).  As you know, real estate is local and it’s hard to find data more granular than a zip code.  

Major Indicator #1 – Sales

Since April 2008 the momentum of Sales has been positive.  In January it crossed back into negative territory.  This would trigger a “SELL” action when a price is being charted.  In the case of this data element, it depicts the typical valley that “should” occur in a real estate cycle.  You can see the “winter dip” occur between December and February each year.  But things are thawing and bears are hungry.

Opinion:  Look for sales to decrease in February and then increase moderately through the spring and summer.  Nobody is sure what the rules will be and my bet is that Congress (should be written with a small “c” in Crayon font) will extend the tax credit for buyers, in some shape or form.  There are always hungry bears.

Major Indicator #2 – REO Sales

These are also known as “bank-owned” and “foreclosed” properties.  When auction demands are not met when offered on the courthouse steps, these homes revert to the owning/servicing bank to sell on the open market.  These have always occurred but not in the numbers we have seen since 2006. 

Since July 2009, REO sales have been less than half the number of Sales. The winter and spring before that, REOs were over 70% of the sales volume.  Banks are simply not foreclosing.  Whether due to accounting practices or “deer in the headlights” syndrome, the movement of product through the pipeline has stalled.  Now the supply is low except for contingent short sales.  And those can be a waste of time.  The momentum is negative.  We hope the REO Sales momentum increases — it would signify the availability of supply. 

Opinion:  Look for REO sales to stay low until the banks understand the new rules.  And then can understand the coming changes to those new rules.  

Major Indicator #3a – Median Sales Price (Sac Cnty)

The median price for all of Sacramento County has shown a slight improvement — but now retreating to the Summer 2001 price levels.  Momentum is serious about getting back to positive territory. 

Opinion:  The area price will decrease slightly while some high-priced areas/zipcodes will see a material reduction in comparable sales. 

Major Indicator #3b – Median Sales Price (ED Cnty)

The choppiness of this El Dorado County chart really just signifies the variation of homes, prices, and supply of sales comparables.  Even the momentum cannot decide which direction to go. 

Opinion:  This general price will decrease slightly due to the high-end which will experience most of the impact in 2010.

Major Indicator #3c – Median Sales Price (PL Cnty)

The slide of prices in Placer has been slower and smoother.  There also may be some corrupting forces at the County and City levels which we don’t see.  For some, the local pride is too sensitive and they won’t accept their just deserts.   Much of Whitney Ranch is entering the “short sale” zone.  This will help supply for some.

Opinion:  The price here will also decline to the squeeze at the higher end of home prices.

Major Indicator #3 – Median Sales Price (All)

This chart shows the comparison of the 3 counties.   It doesn’t include the momentum indicators but it’s interesting to see the responsiveness of Sacramento’s price changes compared to the other 2 counties.

Major Indicator #4 – Notices of Default (NODs)

Notices of Default have hit a major stoppage in the pipeline.  The indicator that is missing is “borrowers in distress”.  That would be a difficult piece of information to collect.

Opinion:  The number of NODs will increase as will Auctions and foreclosures.

Major Indicator #5 – New Home Permits

If they are still building, the homes are smaller and more sensibly designed.  Gone (temporarily?) are the massive walk-in closets and master bathrooms.  Gone are the 4-car garages and bonus rooms.  We have entered and exited the “McMansion Era”.  Some builders died before they could exit.

Opinion:  Population increases generally require more housing.  It only seems we have enough. 

Major Indicator #6 – Mortgage Rate

Free money!!!  If you can get a loan, don’t miss this window of opportunity.  But rules have changed so you better know your buying power and options.

Opinion:  Rates will increase slightly over the year although other lending restrictions will corrupt the market making the rate change less important.  This cannot last for much longer.  China will inevitably call us on it.

Major Indicator #7 – Inventory

I’ve added another piece of information to this chart:  “Active Short Contingent” properties are akin to a Pending status with regard to how Realtors treat them.   If it’s “contingent”, Realtors and buyers know the home has a soft deal with a prospective purchaser.  I think MetroList should make it a “Pending Contingent” status.  It will make the numbers stop lying. 

Opinion:  Inventory will increase but so will Active Short Contingent listings.  So who knows!

Major Indicator #8 – Months’ Inventory

The Inventory is over-stated so the true turn-over rate (Months’ Inventory) is a little different than depicted below.  Since this depicts the months required to sell all inventory (at the average Days on Market), this too is over-stated.  Mitigating that variance is the fact that many of these “active” listings are actually “pending contingent” and can remain on the market for many months without a bank approval or change in status.  In other words, this indicator is low but not necessarily 3.3 months.

Opinion:  See opinion on “7 – Inventory” above.

Major Indicator #9 – Short Sales

This is a new indicator showing how many Short Sales were successfully closed.  The momentum cannot be charted until at least 12 months of raw data have been collected. 

Opinion:  This number will stay relatively flat, with a slight increase.  Many banks have already concluded they will not entertain short sale offers.  Some borrowers purchased mortgage insurance with their loans which means the lender doesn’t care if they foreclose (insurance pays them about 80% of loan value). 

Major Indicator #10 – Swing Indicator

This is my favorite indicator since it shows the oscillation of the market — much like a EKG machine.  Let’s hope the market doesn’t flatline.  Except for January ‘09, Up-Ticks outpaced Down-Ticks.  For this last month, 41 zipcodes had a momentum up-tick. 

Opinion:  The up-ticks will retreat to a lower level.  This is a cycle that we cannot and should not fight.

These charts depict the momentum of changes in the underlying raw data to help forecast direction. These are not a guarantee of future direction but aid in the prediction of cause/affect in the various market forces. No single indicator tells the whole story. Also charted is the raw data itself. For an explanation or for a monthly subscription to this periodic report, call or email Jay Emerson (916-517-9606, Jay@JayEmerson.com). The data is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Sources include DataQuick, CBIA, Sac MetroList, and other public information.

Contact me for more details and to get an edge in real estate!

Jay Emerson, DRE Broker #01788488
Realty Executives Galster Group
5006 Sunrise Blvd, Ste 202
Fair Oaks, CA 95628
(916) 517-9606
Fax (916) 966-8706

by HS

Pending Home Sales Down. Blame it on the Weather

March 4, 2010 in Data, Data, and More Data by HS

Blame it on the weather.

From The National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Down; Severe Weather Impacting Market

Pending home sales are down and additional declines are expected from abnormal weather conditions, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in January, fell 7.6 percent to 90.4 from an upwardly revised 97.8 in December, but remains 12.3 percent higher than January 2009 when it was 80.5.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said weather is likely to impact housing data. “January pending sales, though still higher than one year ago, remain much lower than expected given that a large number of potential buyers are eligible for the expanded home buyer tax credit. Moreover, the abnormally severe and prolonged winter weather, which affected large regions of the U.S., hampered shopping activity in February,” he said.

As such, abnormal swings are expected in housing data. “We will see weak near-term sales followed by a likely surge of existing-home sales in April, May and June,” Yun said. “The real question is what happens in the second half of the year. If there is sufficient job creation, housing can become self-sustaining with stable to modestly rising home prices because inventory has been trending downward.”

The PHSI in the Northeast fell 8.7 percent to 71.3 in January but is 20.5 percent higher than January 2009. In the Midwest the index dropped 8.9 percent to 81.2 but is 11.8 percent above a year ago. Pending home sales in the South slipped 2.1 percent to an index of 98.1, but the index is 18.0 percent higher than January 2009. In the West the index dropped 13.2 percent to 102.9 but is 1.4 percent above a year ago.

New Credit Suisse Recast Chart

March 2, 2010 in Banking and Finance, Best Of The Storm, Data, Data, and More Data, Fresh Perspectives, Mortgage Notes, Social Mood Swings by Greg Fielding

Credit Suisse has released an updated version of their popular Mortgage Reset & Recast Chart.

Here is the new one:

Here is last year’s chart:

And, here is the original:

There are some thoughts to consider:

  1. There are about 2.5 years of huge resets and recasting ahead.  Because the foreclosure pipeline is already so backlogged, people who stop making payments during this stretch could easily end up waiting another 1-2 years before their homes are actually foreclosed upon.  Even without all of the foreclosures still to come from unemployment, it is easy to see this foreclosure crisis being with us well into 2014-2015.
  2. Because mortgage interest rates are low, “resets” are less of a problem right now. Today, “recasts” are the real threat.  A recast refers to the changing of payment options for Option-Arm loans.  Many borrowers bought the biggest home they could “afford”, using minimum payments to qualify. When the minimum payment option disappears, their monthly expense will “recast” to a substantially-higher amount, regardless of what interest rates do.
  3. Most Option-Arm loans were concentrated in higher-income areas and generally used to buy more expensive homes.  Banks that are holding lots of these on their books, like Wells Fargo, have been fairly proactive in modifying these loans now, while long term rates are low.  It will be interesting to watch, however, if many of these high-end borrowers will walk away from their mortgages as high-end prices continue to fall.
  4. Though rates are currently low, you can see how sensitive the market would be to rate hikes.  The Fed’s MBS repurchase program, the Euro, Greece, Spain, China’s Treasury holdings…all of these factors will likely weigh on mortgage rates in the coming years and have profound effects on our overall economy.
  5. Note the volume of Agency, Alt-A, and Prime loans that will be resetting over the next few years.  These were generally to more qualified buyers with good credit.  If this crowd begins to feel that walking away from their mortgages is socially acceptable, then the housing market will suffer substantially.

by HS

Existing Home Sales Tumble

February 26, 2010 in Data, Data, and More Data by HS

Existing Home Sales for January were far below expectations, dropping 7.2%. Economists were expecting a small increase.

January continued December’s drop from a blow-out November, when the tax credits were originally supposed to end. Check out the effects of the tax credit in this chart from Calculated Risk:

From The National Association of Realtors: Existing-Home Sales Down in January but Higher than a Year Ago; Prices Steady

Existing-home sales fell in January but are above year-ago levels, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – dropped 7.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 5.05 million units in January from a revised 5.44 million in December, but remain 11.5 percent above the 4.53 million-unit level in January 2009.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said there is still some delay between shopping and closing that affected current sales. “Most of the completed deals in January were based on contracts in November and December. People who got into the market after the home buyer tax credit was extended in November have only recently started to offer contracts, so it will take a couple months to close those sales,” he said. “Still, the latest monthly sales decline is not encouraging, and raises concern about the strength of a recovery.”

Total housing inventory at the end of January fell 0.5 percent to 3.27 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 7.8-month supply2 at the current sales pace, up from a 7.2-month supply in December. Raw unsold inventory is 9.6 percent below a year ago, and is at the lowest level since March 2006.

“Activity should be picking up strongly in late spring as buyers take advantage of the tax credit, which is critical to absorb distressed properties reaching the market and to continually chip away at inventory,” Yun said. “With a downtrend in the number of homes on the market, especially in the lower price ranges, values are beginning to firm but with great variance around the country.”

The national median existing-home price3 for all housing types was $164,700 in January, unchanged from a year earlier. Distressed homes, which accounted for 38 percent of sales last month, continue to downwardly distort the median price because they typically are discounted in comparison with traditional homes in the same area.

A parallel NAR practitioner survey4 shows first-time buyers purchased 40 percent of homes in January, down from 43 percent in December. Investors accounted for 17 percent of transactions in January, up from 15 percent in December; the remaining sales were to repeat buyers. The survey also shows that buyer traffic increased 9.4 percent in January.

NAR President Vicki Cox Golder, owner of Vicki L. Cox & Associates in Tucson, Ariz., said buying a home in the current environment has become more challenging. “First-time buyers and others who need a mortgage are increasingly losing out to all-cash investors for the best bargains in many areas, particularly for foreclosed homes where cash is king,” she said.

“Inventory conditions vary by price range, and of course there are major differences depending on location. Realtors® are the best buyer resource for strategies on winning bids in increasingly competitive markets,” Golder said. “The bidding for more desirable homes will only accelerate between now and the April 30 contract deadline to qualify for a tax credit of up to $8,000.”

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage edged up to 5.03 percent in January from 4.93 percent in December; the rate was 5.05 percent in January 2009.

Single-family home sales fell 6.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.43 million in January from a level of 4.76 million in December, but are 8.6 percent above the 4.08 million pace in January 2009. The median existing single-family home price was $163,600 in January, down 0.4 percent from a year ago.

Existing condominium and co-op sales dropped 8.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 620,000 in January from 675,000 in December, but are 38.1 percent above the 449,000-unit level a year ago. The median existing condo price5 was $172,400 in January, which is 1.4 percent higher than January 2009.

Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast fell 10.9 percent to an annual pace of 820,000 in January but are 22.4 percent above a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $245,300, a gain of 8.8 percent from January 2009.

Existing-home sales in the Midwest declined 6.9 percent in January to a level of 1.08 million but are 8.0 percent higher than January 2009. The median price in the Midwest was $130,300, which is 1.0 percent below a year ago.

In the South, existing-home sales dropped 7.4 percent to an annual pace of 1.87 million in January but are 12.0 percent above a year ago. The median price in the South was $140,200, down 2.0 percent from January 2009.

Existing-home sales in the West declined 5.2 percent to an annual rate of 1.28 million in January but are 7.6 percent higher than January 2009. The median price in the West was $203,400, down 5.8 percent from a year ago.

The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.2 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

by HS

Case-Shiller: Improvement Unsustained

February 23, 2010 in Data, Data, and More Data by HS

From Standard and Poors Home Prices Continue to Send Mixed Messages as 2009 Comes to a Close According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

Data through December 2009, released today by Standard & Poor’s for bits S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show that the U.S. National Home Price Index fell in the fourth quarter of 2009 but has improved in its annual rate of return, as compared to what was reported in the third quarter.

cs1

“As measured by prices, the housing market is definitely in better shape than it was this time last year, as the pace of deterioration has stabilized for now. However, the rate of improvement seen during the summer of 2009 has not been sustained,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. “In the most recent months we are seeing fewer and fewer MSAs reporting monthly gains in prices. Only four cities saw month to month improvements in December over November, when you look at the raw data. We are in a seasonally slow period for home prices, however, so it is not surprising to see better statistics in the seasonally-adjusted data, where 14 of the markets and the two monthly composites all rose in December. Similarly, the National Composite fell by 1.1% in the fourth quarter, but rose by 1.6% on a seasonally-adjusted basis.”

cs2

Orlando Real Estate Distressed Sales Numbers 02/22/2010

February 22, 2010 in Data, Data, and More Data by David W. Welch

Currently, there are 16,216 active listings in the Orlando marketplace with 1,776 bank owned and 6,056 short sales making up 48.3% of the active inventory. That is a pretty big chunk of the market, but pales in comparison to the percentage of pending and closed sales so far this month. The good news is that pending sales are going through the roof with 9,467. The not so hot news is that 83.2% of the pending sales are distressed with 1,876 REO’s and 6,002 short sales. The number of closed sales so far is 1,043 suggesting a pretty good month for the number of closed transactions. Closed sales so far are also very heavily weighted with distressed properties. There have been 464 bank owned and 268 short sales closed so far making up 70.2%. The high percentage is showing up in the sales prices too. The median sales price for bank owned properties is at $76,050, short sales is $99,000 and “normal” sales is $164,000. The overall median sales price is up slightly from January at $107,000.

The inventory remains fairly stable, sales remain fairly strong with around 2,000 closing per month since June of last year. So why are the prices coming down? I believe at least a part of the problem lies in the condition of the distressed properties that are for sale now compared to a year ago. When the foreclosures first started hitting the market here, many of them were investor purchased homes in excellent condition. In fact, many of them were brand new homes that had barely been lived in. More and more, I am showing homes in disrepair and otherwise poor condition. Some are newer homes, but the process to foreclose and market has taken very long and time and toll on the homes. Others are foreclosures and short sales created by economic conditions. The owners just began to neglect the home, because they could not afford to maintain it. Of course, some take out their frustration on the home by damaging and ransacking the property before the bank takes it back.

Orlando Real Estate, David Welch Real Estate Optimist, As Seen On HGTV’s House Hunters

Get Adobe Flash playerPlugin by wpburn.com wordpress themes