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Median Incomes Versus Median Home Prices

HS — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 20:59:57 +0000

Looking at median home prices versus median income, prices of homes would need to decline another 10 percent or so to reach the historical average of 3.5. Of course, they could overshoot…

Courtesy, TBP.

Foreclosure Sales Jump in March

HS — Wed, 13 Apr 2011 02:48:13 +0000

From ForeclosureRadar:

Foreclosure sales rose dramatically in most of our coverage area, though much of the increase was due to March having more days than February. In California foreclosure sales increased 35.1 percent overall, but rose just 10.5 percent on a daily average basis. Nevada foreclosure sales, however, bounced back dramatically after falling in February, rising 109.5 percent even on a daily average basis. Foreclosure starts, when viewed on a daily average basis, declined across our coverage area in March, though the overall number of filings increased in California, Nevada and Washington due to the longer month. Time to Foreclose continues to increase across the board, most notably in Nevada, where sales were impacted by a local court ruling.

“Between government intervention, internal issues within the banks, and even simple deviations like the number of days in the month, it is easy to come to the wrong conclusions about foreclosure activity,” says Sean O’Toole, CEO and Founder of ForeclosureRadar.com. “The one thing that remains clear is that while the process has slowed, there remains no consensus on a viable solution other than foreclosure to eliminate the excess mortgage debt that has left millions underwater and continues to hinder the broader economy.”

October 2010 Housing Statistics – Sacramento County

Doug Reynolds — Fri, 12 Nov 2010 23:39:34 +0000

Fall market showing characteristic slowing, median price remains flat

On par with a normal Fall/Winter trends of decreased sales volume, October showed a 6.4% decrease in sales from 1,433 to 1,341 units. Making up these sales were 537 REOs (40%), 315 short sales (23.5%) and 489 conventional sales (36.5%). These numbers have changes slightly month to month with REOs up 4.7% and short sales and conventional sales down 7.1% and .2%, respectively.

The median homes sales price remained relatively flat, decreasing .3% from $180,000 to $179,500. Compared with the same month last year $185,000), the number is down 3%. The $200,000 – $249,999 price range mode still accounts for a majority (17.2% or 231 units) of the 1,341 total sales this month, while homes under $100,000 totaled 186 (13.8%) units.

Conventional financing continued as the primary source of all home and condo sales (515, 35.5%) with cash (378, 26.1%) and FHA financing (438, 0.2%) making up the two other large categories. Month to month, conventional financing increased by 6.2%, FHA financing increased by 3.4% and cash financing decreased 8%. VA loans (35, 2.4%) and other financing (84, 5.8%) rounded out the remainder. The other category includes CalVet, contract of sale, creative, farm home loan and owner financing. The median amount of days spent on the market (from list date to opening escrow) was 41 – up from the 39 median DOM of sales in September.

The Total Listing Inventory has recently been split up to more accurately display the current market. Active Listings numbered 5,319 properties and Active Short Sales Contingent showed 1,740. Active Short Sale Contingent properties are short sale properties on which initial offers have been made and are not entirely “active.” After breaking down Total Listing Inventory, we find that the Housing Market Supply figure is more accurately reflected. The Housing Market Supply figure for October was 4 Months – up from 3.6 Months in September. This figure represents the amount of time – in months – it would take to deplete the Active Listing Inventory (5,319) given the current number of closed escrows (1,341). According to MetroList® MLS data, the average home was 1,714 square feet. Of the 1,341 sales this month, 135 (10%) had 2 bedrooms or fewer, 698 (52%) had 3 bedrooms, 414 (30.8%) were 4 bedroom properties and 92 properties (6.8%) had 5+ bedrooms.

Sacramento County Quarterly Market Report 2010 Q3

Doug Reynolds — Mon, 01 Nov 2010 16:53:43 +0000

Sacramento Quarterly Market Recap

Doug Reynolds — Fri, 29 Oct 2010 19:54:08 +0000

Prices Remain Flat as the number of sales Decline while some Homebuyers move to the sidelines

Fewer homes on the market and a lack of motivation among homebuyers to act on favorable prices and interest rates following the expiration of federal tax incentives caused sales of existing single-family detached homes to slow across Sacramento County in the third quarter, according to a report by the research division of Better Homes and Gardens Mason-McDuffie Real Estate based on MLS data.

Countywide, 4,109 homes were sold in the third quarter, a 16 percent drop from 4,920 homes sold in the second quarter and 20 percent below the 5,123 homes sold during last year’s third quarter. A shortage of inventory and faster approval of bank-owned and short sale offers ensured that homes continued to move quickly, averaging only 58 days on the market from listing to close, up slightly from 53 days during the same quarter of 2009.

However, the pace of home sales fell from the second to the third quarter in 11 of the 12 communities in the report and was sharply lower on an annualized basis in 10 of those markets. Carmichael was the only community to register a sales increase for both the quarter and the year, with sales rising 3% and 7%, respectively. Sales increased by 2% in Fair Oaks on a year-over-year basis.

The median Price of a home sold in Sacramento County during the third quarter slipped only 3 percent from the second quarter to $185,312 and was almost unchaged from $185,212 a year ago. Median sales prices for the quarter remained flat or were slightly lower on a quarterly basis in eight communities and declined on an annualized basis in nine.

The City of Sacramento showed further signs of market stability; its $150,000 median sales price was up 3 percent from a year ago. Fair Oaks was the only market to report both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year increases in the median sales price, which jumped to $279,158 – up 9 percent from the second quarter and 8 percent from the same period a year ago.

For the immediate future, homebuyers can expect multiple offers and fast sales on those that are bank owned or have been well-maintained or refurbished by investors and returned to the market. Homebuyers interested in a home that requires repairs or updates will want to look into the HUD/FHA 203k loan, which offers a low down payment bundled with a home renovation allowance.

clear skies,

doug reynolds

www.BuyWithDoug.com

Obama mortgage mods slow, hitting nearly 500,000

Doug Reynolds — Thu, 28 Oct 2010 21:43:21 +0000

Here’s a quick update on the Government’s HAMP program. It has had some success but not nearly as much that was hoped before the program began. Most times, after trying for a loan modification and failing, a homeowner typically turns to short sale to try and avoid foreclosure. Here’s the article from CNNMoney.com :

clear skies, Doug Reynolds www.SellWithDoug.com

Obama mortgage mods slow, hitting nearly 500,000

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — The government’s main foreclosure-rescue program continues to show signs of slowing progress, according to a federal report released Monday.

There were 28,000 permanent mortgage modifications reported in September under the Home Affordable Modification Program, known as HAMP. That’s down from more than 33,000 in August.

HAMP is designed to help eligible borrowers modify their home loans to make their monthly payments more affordable.

A total of 495,898 borrowers have received permanent loan modifications since HAMP was launched in 2009. Of that half-million homeowners, 11% redefaulted on their new lower-cost loans after nine months. After six months, less than 10% of modified loans were delinquent.

Jay’s No BS Market Indicators and Commentary – September 2010

Jay Emerson — Mon, 25 Oct 2010 19:07:43 +0000

: No BS Real Estate indicators here: http://www.JayEmerson.com/Indicators.html .

Change in Momentum	September 2010	August 2010	July 2010
Up-Ticks	19	22	29
Unchanged	17	20	14
Down-Ticks	18	12	11

First of all, I am grateful for the clients who have blessed me with their trust and business. Thank you.

There is good news. The good news is that this market is much more kind to buyers than just 6 months ago and the numbers are fairly good. There is no cause for frenzy. We actually have time to consider multiple properties and get loan pre-approvals before writing and submitting an offer. The bad news is that the winter is coming which puts its own “kink in the hose”.

My Swing indicator below depicts this change that results from kinks in the housing hose. Like other swings, this one is explainable partly due to the season, partly due to technical reasons (hidden supply), and partly due to the emotions of economic unknowns. The item swinging is the change in momentum of median sales prices for the 50+ zip codes in our 3 counties. Each community tracked on my Communities pages, represents one or more zip codes used by the Swing indicator.

For past No BS entries which provide more information on these charts and my proprietary tracking system, please see my blog.

Speaking of kinks giving rise to swings, Congress is the source of many and some new proposals. Not only did their tax-credit and offset ideas turn out unfunded and horribly backward, now they are targeting an institutional and legal process called “foreclosure”. Like bankruptcy options for an entity and individual, the right of a lender legally foreclosing on an asset (repossession) is critical for the health of the market for that asset or commodity. Would you loan someone money with no strings attached? I didn’t think so. Let the banks foreclose so the rest of the food-chain can survive.

If you are buying an REO, or any home for that matter, you must investigate the chain of title during your inspection period to ensure the seller is in fact the owner of record. You can see how this is true for ANY home purchased. And if you are selling, you have to provide a clear title so ensure it’s clear BEFORE you accept an offer. Title is no small item.

Nobody really knows the unintended consequences of this Federal government coercion. When a deer gets caught in a bright light, it tends to freeze whether in imminent danger or not. Banks are falling victim to this same malady due to government regulations. Except for folks who recently purchased an REO or their home has been incorrectly repossessed, the foreclosure freeze is not helpful. In formal process engineering, when profit is at risk, you have to “paint the airplane while it’s flying”. That means AUDIT and IMPROVE but don’t FREEZE and CRIPPLE the entire supply chain. Naturally a non-profit government would not understand the dynamics of a market-driven supply chain.

But there is truly no need for panic or frenzy. Congress is getting replaced soon and lenders and builders will begin to breath again. Hopefully all are beyond the fogged-mirror test for selling loans and homes.

In short, the real estate bubble has moved on [to gold?], new listing types have been added to our lexicon, REO banks really don’t want to own houses (motivated sellers), and buyers have saved their money and are astute about the process. Well, MY clients are astute about the process because of the education they get.

So when the media calls it a frenzy, remember we are getting through this slump and we don’t need to panic. If you are in a bad situation, call me first. Don’t pay anyone to deliver on empty promises. I am schooled at short sales, REOs, and even normal “equity” sales.

For you buyers who are in the perfect position (buy low, sell high), you can search and find listings anywhere you wish. But call me when you are ready for the best real estate consultant around.

The major indicators below and the community data and trends can be used to tell the market story (rent information is updated quarterly). Use this data to understand the market and see the story unfold. This system is called “No BS Indicators” because figures don’t lie and I don’t spin them.

Remember, there are 50 zip codes tracked behind my Communities page.

: Jay Emerson, Broker

October/November 2010 Sacramento Real Estate Market Update

Doug Reynolds — Tue, 19 Oct 2010 21:25:55 +0000

Doug Reynolds, a Sacramento Realtor, provides an analysis of the local market statistics for September. This month focusing on new legislation that has been passed, SB 931. The new law has a huge benefit for short sellers. And also discussing the recent Foreclosure Moratoriums. More information can be found at his website, www.BuyWithDoug.com, as well as his blog and Facebook page(Doug Reynolds Real Estate).

September 2010 Housing Statistics – Sacramento County

Doug Reynolds — Fri, 15 Oct 2010 22:24:43 +0000

Median sales price sees slight dip, sales volume remains flat

September showed little signs of movement, keeping the Sacramento housing market relatively flat with sales volume decreasing 4.2% from 1,496 units to 1,433 units. Making up these sales were 547 REOs (38.2%), 362 short sales (25.3%) and 524 conventional sales (36.6%). These numbers have changes slightly month to month with REOs up 5.5% and short sales and conventional sales down 4.8% and 1.6%, respectively. The median homes sales price rose decreased 3.2% from $186,000 to $180,000. Compared with the same month last year ($183,000), the number is down 1.6%. The $200,000 – $249,999 price range mode still accounts for a majority (18.4% or 263 units) of the 1,433 total sales this month, while homes under $100,000 totaled 205 (14.2%) units. Conventional financing continued as the primary source of all home and condo sales (520, 33.4%) with cash (443, 28.4%) and FHA financing (455, 29.2%) making up the two other large categories. VA loans (49, 3.1%) and other financing (91, 5.8%) rounded out the remainder. The other category includes CalVet, contract of sale, creative, farm home loan and owner financing. The median amount of days spent on the market (from list date to opening escrow) was 39 – up from the 35 median DOM of sales in August.

The Total Listing Inventory has recently been split up to more accurately display the current market. Active Listings numbered 5,139 properties and Active Short Sales Contingent showed 1,736. Active Short Sale Contingent properties are short sale properties on which initial offers have been made and are not entirely “active.” After breaking down Total Listing Inventory, we find that the Housing Market Supply figure is more accurately reflected. The Housing Market Supply figure for September was 3.6 Months – up from 3.4 Months in August. This figure represents the amount of time – in months – it would take to deplete the Active Listing Inventory (5,139) given the current number of closed escrows (1,433). According to MetroList® MLS data, the average home was 1,706 square feet. Of the 1,433 sales this month, 139 (9.6%) had 2 bedrooms or fewer, 756 (52.7%, up 50% from last month [34.6%]) had 3 bedrooms, 416 (29%) were 4 bedroom properties and 122 properties (8.5%) had 5+ bedrooms.

Update on Loan Modification Event in Sacramento

Doug Reynolds — Thu, 14 Oct 2010 20:09:18 +0000

Here’s a follow up article from a previous post. The article is from the sacramento bee. NACA, the organization hosting the loan modification event says they 30% of the thousands and thousands of homeowners that attended, receive a loan mod. That’s all good but my concern is “Are they going to keep up with the new payments?” Statistics show that most loan modifications end up in default again within 6 months. If that’s the case, then most loan mods are not the answer. Give it a read.

clear skies,

doug reynolds

www.BuyWithDoug.com

Cal Expo loan rescue event had winners — and losers

By Mark Glover Wednesday, Oct. 13, 2010

Five days of waiting, hoping, elation and disappointment wrapped up Tuesday night at Cal Expo, and getting a good read on the success of the venue’s massive home loan modification event is a little like hitting a moving target.

The Massachusetts-based Neighborhood Assistance Corporation of America claimed another success in its tour of U.S. cities.

An estimated 10,000 people were in line Friday morning when the Cal Expo Pavilion’s doors opened on NACA’s around-the-clock “Save the Dream” event aimed at helping distressed homeowners avoid foreclosure.

By Tuesday evening, NACA officials said thousands among more than 30,000 passing through Cal Expo left the same day with reworked mortgages and newly affordable loan payments.

In the perpetually packed pavilion, a steady stream of people came to a stage microphone to testify that they were leaving with a fresh opportunity – they could keep their homes, and payments had been altered to fit their budgets.

Combined with hundreds of on-site lenders and volunteers running about, working phones and tapping computer keyboards, the Pavilion interior often resembled a combination war room and revival meeting.

NACA is a nonprofit organization that does not charge for its services. It puts on the events using federal government funding through the National Foreclosure Mitigation Counseling Program.

With NACA acting as the middleman between distressed homeowners and lenders, NACA CEO Bruce Marks said the event’s overall goal was met: “We want to get all these people face to face with their lender. … For whatever reason, they have not been able to do that. This gives them that opportunity.”

Marks and NACA officials repeatedly said that their batting average was not perfect.

About 30 percent of attendees walk away the same day with modified home loans, NACA said, and many others take the first steps of getting a loan modification.

Yet others walk away totally disappointed, with their lender telling them flat out that their loans will remain unchanged.

The reasons for failure are numerous, and they include inadequate documentation of fiscal hardship and a lender’s determination that a borrower can afford the current loan payment.

Scenes of angry people leaving Cal Expo were common. Some said they waited nearly 20 hours to get in, only to be told their situation would not change.

Those cases typically draw out the sharpest critics of NACA.

Sacramento attorney Richard Allaye-Chan, who said he has represented clients who claim to have been misled by lenders or mortgage brokers, said he’s “skeptical of the whole process. … I’d like to see the statistics to see what percentage of those who walk in actually get the help they need … or how soon it falls apart.”

Allaye-Chan said he has “a hard time believing that anyone can truly save the dream” and wonders how many reworked loans benefit lenders more than borrowers.

He also believes banks won’t cooperate with the majority of stressed homeowners.

Kris Vogt, president of the Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage’s Sacramento-Tahoe regional office, did not comment specifically about NACA, but said he supports the idea of keeping people in their homes.

“Speaking generically, anything that helps consumers is a good thing, but we also don’t want to give false hope to people,” Vogt said. “There’s no silver bullet out there, but anything that gives consumers more information on their options is good.”

Pam Canada, executive director of the nonprofit NeighborWorks HomeOwnership Center Sacramento Region (www.nwsac.org), which helps regional homeowners stay in their homes, said “it’s always interesting when any large-scale event comes to our area … but when the circus leaves town, there’s always concern about the people left behind who still need help.

“We’re helping people in the region day in and day out, so hopefully they know that they can get help from us and other certified nonprofits in the region anytime.”